No US Recession for at Least 5 Years: OppenheimerFunds Investment Boss
Originally published on: CCN
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January 14, 2019
There’s no fear of an economic recession within the next five years, so everyone anxious about bearish projections should calm down. That’s the advice of Krishna Memani, the chief investment officer at OppenheimerFunds.
Memani says the US economy is slowing down a bit, but it will still increase north of 2%. Moreover, Memani says that fears of a US recession that will drag down the global economy is overblown.
‘No Recession Imminent’
“There’s no recession imminent — I think five more years is what we are talking about,” Krishna told CNBC on January 14. “Valuations are meaningfully better.”
And sentiment improves with the trade talks. If we can find that resolution and the federal government opens up again, we will be home free.”
Memani says the Federal Reserve’s indication that it won’t raise rates again has calmed Wall Street anxiety. As CCN reported, Fed chairman Jerome Powell hiked US interest rates a stunning four times in 2018.
The Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates seven times during President Donald Trump’s two years in office. In contrast, the Fed increased rates just once during Barack Obama’s eight-year tenure.
Memani: ‘The Fed Has Backed Off’
The repeated rate hikes in 2018 caused the stock market to tumble in December and fueled widespread fears of a recession. Amid heavy backlash from all sides, Powell vowed to be more sensitive before raising rates so frequently.
“The Fed has effectively backed off,” Memani observed. “That’s a good thing. Even if they tighten one or two times more, I think they will put more color around it to not spook the market.”
Memani: Trade Is Biggest Risk In Market
Krishna Memani says the biggest risk in the global stock market is trade. However, he’s optimistic that the ongoing trade disputes between the United States and China will be resolved. Why? Because both sides have too much to lose if they don’t fix the problem.
Trade is an open issue. But we will find a resolution because of the data flow that we are seeing, which is that the Chinese economy is slowing down meaningfully and the US economy is slowing down meaningfully.
That gives the politicians significant incentive to come to a consensus. We have to find that conclusion relatively quickly.
Despite the global economic slowdown, Memani is still recommending that investors buy. “We are telling people to buy right now because we expect these resolutions,” he said.
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon: No Global Recession
OppenheimerFund’s Memani echoed the bullish market sentiments of JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.
Last week, the billionaire banker said a global recession is not coming, so everyone needs to “take a deep breath.” Dimon concedes that we are experiencing a slowdown, but the media-fueled hysteria of an imminent recession is fake news.
The United States is still growing, at 2.5%. It’s very possible we have a slowdown. People [should] take a deep breath.
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Dimon says the market was roiled by the Fed rate hikes and escalating trade tensions between China and the US, but that has eased a bit.
As it is, the US economy is currently robust. The unemployment rate is at a 48-year-low, and 312,000 jobs were added in December 2018 — far more than the 177,000 that was expected.
“It looks like there will be growth,” Dimon said. “We’re [not] going into a global recession.”
Featured image from oppenheimerfunds.com