Tom Lee: “The Altcoin Bear Rally is Almost at an End,” but still Stick to Bitcoin
Originally published on: Tom Lee: “The Altcoin Bear Rally is Almost at an End,” but still Stick to Bitcoin
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March 23, 2018
As long as an investment market exists, and the principles of demand and supply still hold sway: The bulls and the bears will be forever locked in a constant struggle. 2017 saw an aggressive bull run in the crypto market not just for bitcoin, but for many altcoins. While most experienced investors knew the inevitable bear run was just around the corner though not many could guess how deep the plunge would be.
The Bear Cycle Is Almost Over
The bear run in the crypto market has lasted for 64 days now according to Fundstrat, and in that time, the altcoin price index has declined by about 75 percent based on the firm’s analysis.
This bear run came after a bull rally that lasted about 62 days. Within that period, the prices of altcoins reached peak levels. Now, analysts at Fundstrat are confident that the bear market run is almost at an end.
A strong #crypto bear market in 2018 would sharpen all of us.
— Chris Burniske (@cburniske) December 31, 2017
Reports of stricter regulations from several countries around the world happening at the same time led to a widespread panic of an impending global crypto clampdown. Massive selloffs became the order of the day and the market lost about 50 percent due to the market-wide correction.
The folks at Fundstrat aren’t the only ones who believe the crypto bear run is almost over. In February 2018, Dan Morehead, the CEO of Pantera, also said that the crypto bear cycle is nearing its conclusion.
He went on to predict an aggressive bull run within the coming months. In fact, the consensus among many crypto optimists has been that the good times will return to the crypto market after the end of the first quarter of 2018 based on historical precedents.
A Little Bit of “Purgatory”
While the belief exists that market slump is almost over, some experts believe that a bull run is still some time away.
As part of a note to Fundstrat’s investors, Thomas Lee, Robert Sluymer, and Sam Doctor, all strategists at Fundstrat, stated that a period of consolidation would precede any bull run. They referred to this period of consolidation as “purgatory.”
Taking a cue from previous bear-bull cycles, they stated that purgatories usually last between 70 to 231 days.
Commenting on the current cycle, they estimated a purgatory period of between 150 days to 175 days which will mean the bull run commencing sometime in the fall, between mid-August to mid-September.
The renewed government and regulatory focus on ICOs and crypto exchange platforms is putting a significant strain on the altcoin market according to the Fundstrat strategists. As such, the firm has advised their investors to stick to bitcoin and the larger market cap altcoins during this period.